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There was a palpable, and perhaps conscious, display of wit, camaraderie, bonding and bonhomie by leaders at the Opposition’s grand Patna conclave — the largest such gathering of anti-BJP forces since Narendra Modi’s emergence as a formidable force in 2014. Barring the Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal, almost all the leaders went away feeling the meeting was positive and marked a good beginning.
Much can be said about those who were present and those absent. There was no invitation to K Chandrashekar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi, and no one frankly expected him to turn up either had he been invited. After having launched his own unity bid, KCR has been hinting post the Karnataka results that he would rather go it alone.
Similarly, the BJD’s Naveen Patnaik, the JD(S)’s H D Deve Gowda, the BSP’s Mayawati and the YSRCP’s Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy have made clear their preference for equidistance from both an Opposition and a BJP front, and were not present in Patna.
Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar, who hosted the get-together, has claimed that more parties will join the Opposition camp closer to the 2024 elections.
But, even as the leaders who assembled in Patna painted a picture of unity, there are steep challenges ahead, which they are acutely aware of. These pertain primarily to three states — West Bengal, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, the first two ruled by the Opposition, and UP by the BJP.
From West Bengal, Trinamool Congress supremo and CM Mamata Banerjee went out of her way to strike a rapport with everyone, despite being in the middle of a highly fractious panchayat poll campaign back home, where she is in direct contest with the Congress and CPI(M), fellow participants at the Patna meeting.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, whose ties with the Congress have also been less than warm recently in UP, opted for a certain nonchalance.
As for Punjab, where the Congress and AAP are pitted against each other, Kejriwal’s rebellious mode indicated rough weather.
There was a clear message from the Patna meeting for the Congress, the largest of the Opposition parties, whose measures going forward, and willingness to accommodate, will decide the fate of any grouping. The message was delivered by Lalu Prasad, the astute head of the RJD, and by Mamata.
Lalu told the Congress that it should show “large-heartedness”, and that the biggest party in every state should lead the fight in that state, with the others extending support and cooperation. Mamata echoed this, arguing the Congress could count on the support of other parties in states where it is formidable.
But among the test cases of this arrangement would be West Bengal – both of the Congress’s willingness to accept the TMC as the predominant force in the state, and of the TMC’s willingness to reciprocate.
The TMC has given signals in the past that it intends to not just contest all the seats in Bengal but is hoping to make its presence felt in some other states, hoping to emerge as a force at the national level.
The CPI(M), the largest of the Left parties and also a sworn TMC enemy in Bengal, is more comfortable with post-poll coalitions at the national level – leaving the parties unencumbered during elections – and often cites the examples of the United Front, NDA and UPA. It is not averse to state-level arrangements, though.
Opposition leaders, however, argue that while such reservations are understandable, all of them in Bengal are willing to overlook them for the larger picture, as the situation has changed.
In UP, the SP is no longer insistent on going it alone, provided the Congress acknowledges that the SP is the main Opposition force in the state. What could move the needle in this regard is the buzz about a possible BSP-Congress tie-up. Some in the BSP say Mayawati is keeping a watch on the developments in the Opposition camp and, despite taking a position that her party will contest the 2024 elections alone, may take a final decision on an alliance closer to the elections.
It’s in AAP-ruled Punjab and Delhi that the situation is much more complex. Sources in the Congress claim that the AAP – which rode to power on an anti-Congress wave – is keen for a tie-up in Delhi. In Punjab, where the Congress is much more confident, the situation is different.
However, the AAP’s open attack on the Congress at and after the Patna meeting – including Kejriwal’s claims of being snubbed by Rahul Gandhi – won’t win it any friends. State units of the Congress, both in Delhi and Punjab, have more than once expressed their opposition to any association with the AAP.
However, the dominant sentiment in the Opposition camp is hope, and the belief that parties are willing to make some “compromises here and there” to oust the BJP from power.
“It is a larger fight. We know the challenges. There will be some compromises and we shall succeed in keeping the unity intact,” one non-Congress leader said.
Asked about whether the coalition would have a name and formal positions such as chairman and convenor, another leader said: “The Patna meeting was largely an ice-breaker. The body language of all the leaders was positive. There was laughter and bonhomie. We will in due course work out a programme and give the alliance a structure.
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