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Over the past few months, Maharashtra has been witnessing a bitter anti-Muslim mobilisation but the Opposition did not respond adequately. Now, the “secular” Bhujbals and Ajit Pawars have joined hands with the BJP in the backdrop of the alleged mob lynchings in Nashik. This says a lot about the meaninglessness of the ongoing reconfiguration in Maharashtra.
Maharashtra has been witnessing a churn since 2019: First, the Shiv Sena chose to sever its three-decades-old ties with the BJP. That, in itself, was a major reconfiguration that led to the isolation of the BJP and the formation of a new coalition. Last year, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was disrupted because of a “split” in the Shiv Sena and the formation of a government in which the BJP agreed to play second fiddle. Now, Maharashtra’s other major state-level party, the NCP, has “split” and a faction of its legislators has joined the state government. This development has the potential to further complicate the state’s political situation — and distract from critical socio-economic issues.
There is no need to speculate why the faction led by Ajit Pawar decided to side with the BJP. He has repeatedly expressed exasperation over being out of power. This is not something specific to Ajit Pawar. Since the party’s inception in 1999, the NCP has been a vehicle for exercising formal governmental power for its top leaders. Most of them have spent their early years close to centres of power and do not have the stamina to work as members of an Opposition party — they are clueless about oppositional mobilisation. Since 2014, most of them have been listless like fish out of water. While this time a large group has joined hands with the BJP en masse, a steady stream of leaders have been joining the party once they saw it emerging as the dominant pole in national politics.
The question, then, is not why Ajit Pawar and many others chose to align with the BJP, but what repercussions the exodus will have on state politics. What does this mean for the BJP, which seems to be most gleeful about this episode? Some supporters of the party will, of course, argue that they have avenged the humiliation of 2019— a tame point, given that the party has lost the CM’s post. The clever-by-half strategists may claim that this will cut to size the Shinde group. But this is a less significant aspect of this episode since Shine and his followers do not have any clout on their own.
The BJP may argue, for valid reasons, that with two crutches, the party might be able to win a reasonable number of seats next year, especially because the groups led by Shinde and Pawar seem to be less interested in Lok Sabha seats. More importantly, the BJP may have achieved a larger objective — the decimation of yet another state-level force. In every state, the BJP aims at demolishing regional players to clear the ground for its next electoral assault. Knowing that Congress has severe limitations in fighting the BJP in direct contests, the latter wants to decimate state parties and then encourage the mushrooming of self-styled smaller players who can be managed more easily, and discarded when they are not needed.
Seen this way, the BJP emerges as a winner from the new reconfiguration in Maharashtra. There is a catch to this, though: Sympathy for the parties that have lost can hurt the BJP. Also, in the Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP will have to postpone its ambition of “shat pratishat Bhajapaa” (coming to power on its own). A Lok Sabha bounty will be dependent on sharing power with the two breakaway groups — unless the BJP manages to decimate and dump them. It is quite likely this is the game plan, to which the Shinde faction and Ajit Pawar faction do not seem to have an answer.
Ever since the NCP drama unfolded on Sunday, some Congress sympathisers have been suggesting that this is an excellent opportunity for the party to expand in the state. Theoretically, this is a correct assessment. With both the Shiv Sena and NCP bruised, Congress should emerge as the main Opposition. In terms of setting the agenda and seat sharing for Lok Sabha, Congress could have the upper hand. However, these expectations hit the wall on three grounds.
First, the state Congress does not have an effective leadership that can bring the party closer to the people. A complete overhaul of the party in the state will be required for Congress to make any impact. Second, it will have to shed its reservations about working with both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Different groups in the state Congress are unwilling to do so of their own accord. Some are worried about the Shiv Sena’s stance on Hindutva (though the state Congress has done little to protect Muslims) and there are those who are averse to trusting Sharad Pawar on historical grounds. In 2019, too, the state Congress leadership, and supposedly Rahul Gandhi himself, was not excited to work with the Shiv Sena. Third, Sharad Pawar seems to be prepared to build his party afresh and with the exit of so many heavyweights, the promise of a quick rise will make his party an attractive destination for new entrants to politics — the Congress, \with its entrenched local leadership, cannot guarantee this.
The final question that this latest reconfiguration raises is about the future of the wounded parties. With the blow to Pawar senior, the sympathy that Uddhav Thackeray was enjoying is likely to wither away. With the constant acrobatics that it has to do on the Hindutva question, the Thackeray Shiv Sena will be in a delicate position. With Pawar’s NCP and the Thackeray faction both wanting to establish their social credentials, the two will be in competition rather than being complementary.
For Sharad Pawar, this might be the toughest moment of his political career. After having chosen to give priority to national politics, he is being forced, once again, to adapt to the role of a regional player. Ironically, his emphasis on national politics and Ajit Pawar’s single-minded focus on state-level politics led to the current breakup. State-level politics has become absolutely critical for Sharad Pawar’s political survival. This will compromise his stature and role in national politics.
In sum, a political whodunnit has hit Maharashtra in which there are no clear beneficiaries. For benefits to accrue and political competition to become intelligible to the voter, some more thrilling intrigues could be needed. The course of the state’s politics might well depend on the party — and the leader — that can craft such intrigues.
Meanwhile, as comedy turns into tragedy, policy and governance in the state will take a back seat. The new entrants into the Modi fold will shout themselves hoarse about the virtues of the BJP regime. And conveniently, a shrill anti-minority mobilisation will gain ground in Maharashtra.
The writer, based in Pune, taught political science and is the chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics
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