Why EC’s Assam delimitation draft has Opposition crying foul — ‘hasty, favours BJP’

Questions have also been raised over the methodology and timing of the draft, which comes amid the ethnic strife in neighbouring Manipur and less than a year before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Released by the EC Tuesday, the delimitation proposal maintains Assam’s total Lok Sabha and assembly seats at 14 and 126 respectively. However, it raises the number of assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes from eight to nine, and the Scheduled Tribes’ seats from 16 to 19.

Additionally, the boundaries or nomenclature of some Lok Sabha and assembly seats have been redefined. While certain previous assembly constituencies no longer figure in the list, new seats have emerged.

One notable change proposed in the draft is the alteration of the Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency’s name to ‘Kaziranga’. Kaliabor has long been a Congress stronghold, specifically that of the late Tarun Gogoi, a Congress leader and former chief minister, and his family. It has been represented by his son Gaurav Gogoi since 2014.

Speaking to ThePrint, Gogoi alleged that the EC’s draft list was “purely designed with electoral motives” to benefit the BJP, including breaking up the Kaliabor LS seat.

“The draft delimitation list prepared by the EC is based on electoral math, and is an attempt to weaken the opposition parties,” he said. “The Kaliabor seat is one that every other party had been eying for many years. It was won by my late father, Tarun Gogoi, and the Congress many times. In this draft list, they have tried to splinter the Kaliabor LS into different constituencies. Whether this list becomes final or not, we will wait to see.”

The BJP, meanwhile, has denied such allegations.

Assam BJP spokesperson Dewan Dhrubajyoti Moral said the EC had prepared the draft after consultation with all political parties, and the BJP had no role in it.

“Our party welcomes the draft delimitation proposal and we support the steps taken by the EC in the interest of the indigenous Assamese people. The EC team had visited the state and held consultations with opposition parties before preparing the draft,” Moral said.

“Like other parties, we too have our issues, and will apprise the EC during the next consultative meeting,” he added.

The Election Commission has invited suggestions and objections to the draft proposal until July 11, following which an EC team will revisit the state for a public hearing.

A team of EC officials led by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar had visited Assam in March to monitor the exercise, and take in suggestions from stakeholders.

Among the concerns raised back then was that the EC sought to redraw assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies using 2001 rather than 2011 Census figures.

In a press statement Tuesday, the EC confirmed that it has used the 2001 figures for the delimitation exercise, acknowledging that “some groups were in favour, and some against this.”

The draft so far has drawn a largely favourable response from the BJP and its allies, but various opposition parties, from the Congress to the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) to the Trinamool Congress, have raised objections for various reasons.

Kaliabor to Kaziranga

Taking to Twitter after the EC released its draft list, Gaurav Gogoi complained that the Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency had been “dismembered” and that the “motive is plain” given the imminent general elections.

Not surprised to find that the draft delimitation list released by the Election Commission has dismembered my Lok Sabha seat Kaliabor. The list has several errors and faults. With less than a year left for the polls the motive is plain. But nothing can stop the winds of change.

— Gaurav Gogoi (@GauravGogoiAsm) June 20, 2023

The present Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency in central Assam is a general category seat, spreading across Golaghat, Jorhat, Morigaon, and Nagaon districts.

It currently spans 10 assembly constituencies — Samaguri, Kaliabor, Dhing, Golaghat, Bokakhat, Dergaon (SC), Batadroba, Rupohihat, Sarupathar, and Khumtai.

According to Election Commission data, the constituency had over 17.3 lakh voters in the 2019 elections. About 31 percent of the voters here are Muslim, according to data from the 2011 Census.

The proposed new Lok Sabha seat of Kaziranga will comprise 10 assembly segments — Kaliabor, Barhampur, Hojai, Lumding, Golaghat, Dergaon, Bokakhat, Khumtai,  Sarupathar, and the newly formed Binnakandi assembly constituency.

The Congress’s Gogoi clan has won the LS seat since 1998. In 2014, Gaurav Gogoi defeated the BJP’s Mrinal Kumar Saikia. In 2019, he won again, with Moni Madhab Mahanta of the Asom Gana Parishad, a BJP ally, coming second.

‘They want to cut down Muslim votes’

One of the assembly segments that has been brought under the proposed Kaziranga Lok Sabha constituency is Hojai, the home turf of AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, who has alleged that the draft delimitation proposal was “masterminded by the BJP”.

“They want to cut down Muslim votes. I suspect this draft is a creation of the BJP and done with malicious intent,” Ajmal said, addressing the media in Guwahati Wednesday.

“The BJP and the Congress are together in this — because they don’t want any other party in Assam,” he further alleged. “The Congress will gain seats. They used to say we are the B team of the BJP. In reality, the Congress is the A+ team of BJP in Assam. We will go to the Election Commission against this draft proposal,” he remarked.

Notably, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma announced the merger of Hojai district with Nagaon last December, claiming that this was “in the interest of Assam’s future and administrative ease”.

An important assembly constituency in the now defunct Hojai district is Jamunamukh, held by Ajmal’s brother Sirajuddin Ajmal since 2021, and also from 2006 to 2014.

However, in the draft delimitation proposal, Jamunamukh constituency is nowhere to be found, replaced instead by a new constituency, Binnakandi, with redrawn boundaries. Binnakandi block was formerly part of the Jamunamukh assembly constituency.

Another blow to the AIUDF and the Congress is the complete wipe-out of the Dhing assembly seat, which is part of the Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency.

Considered a Muslim stronghold, Dhing is currently represented by controversial AIUDF leader and three-time MLA Aminul Islam, who was elected from the constituency in 2011, 2016, and 2021. He had won by 1,45,888 votes in the last assembly election.

In February 2017, Islam was suspended from the assembly for three days for live-streaming his speech in the House. In 2021, he created a stir when he claimed Mughal emperor Aurangzeb had donated land for the Maa Kamakhya temple in Guwahati.

Since 2006, Dhing has been in the hands of the AIUDF, but in 1991, 1996, and 2001, the seat was won by Congress leaders Muzibar Rahman, Mustafa Shahidul Islam, and Idris Ali respectively.

The draft proposal also suggests transferring the assembly constituencies of Batadraba, Rupohihat, and Samaguri from Kaliabor LS seat to the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency.

Meanwhile, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has dismissed concerns around the disappearance of some seats.

“Some who will have to forfeit their seats owing to the changes in delimitation are attempting to make this into a state issue. My own seat, Jalukbari, no longer exists, but for the larger interest of the people, I will not make a fuss about it. I know from wherever I contest, I will be accepted with love,” the CM remarked while interacting with mediapersons in Guwahati this week.

‘Welcome move’ for Bodoland

Sarma lauded the delimitation draft Tuesday, saying that it is for the “protection of the indigenous Assamese communities including the hill tribes and ethnic groups across Upper Assam, Lower Assam, Central Assam, Barak and Brahmaputra Valleys”.

The number of assembly seats in the autonomous Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) has increased from 16 to 19. Similarly, the West Karbi Anglong hill district has gained an assembly constituency.

Pramod Boro, the president of the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) — a BJP ally — and chief executive member of the Bodoland Territorial Council, has welcomed the draft delimitation proposal.

Speaking to ThePrint, Boro said he was especially pleased about the EC’s decision to retain the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha constituency as a reserved seat for the Scheduled Tribes in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), which comprises the districts of Udalguri, Chirang, Kokrajhar, and Baksa.

While Bodos are concentrated in the BTC areas of Assam, their influence extends to other constituencies, particularly in the Sonitpur, Golaghat, and Karbi Anglong regions.

“We are happy that our area has garnered more seats and Kokrajhar constituency is a reserved parliamentary constituency. Kokrajhar has always been a tribal seat. Our representation in Parliament and our grievances and aspirations as one of the primitive tribes of the country have been fulfilled through the Kokrajhar LS seat,” Boro told ThePrint.

However, Boro has requested that the government also consider Udalguri as a reserved Lok Sabha constituency for the Scheduled Tribes. The delimitation draft proposes that certain parts of Baksa district and the Udalguri (ST) assembly seat — currently part of the Mangaldoi Lok Sabha constituency —  be included in the Darrang Lok Sabha constituency, along with Tamulpur (ST), Goreswar, Bhergaon, Sipajhar, Mangaldoi, and a few other areas.

“During consultation, we had put up our issues and had requested the EC that as per the provisions under Sixth Schedule, the two constituencies of Kokrajhar and Udalguri should be reserved for tribals,” said Boro.

He further emphasised that not only Bodos, but also other communities in the Bodoland areas will have representation, as the number of general constituencies is set to increase. The draft proposal includes the addition of three new assembly constituencies that are not reserved for tribals. These are Goreswar under the Darrang parliamentary constituency, and Gobardhana and Parbatjhora in the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha constituency.

“In our areas, minorities are also happy because they can have representation in the general seats. In the process of delimitation, we never targeted any community or tribe, while giving our suggestions to the EC,” Boro said.

Questions over ‘haste’, NRC, Manipur factor

The delimitation draft has come under fire from the Congress for various reasons.

Terming it “unscientific,” Congress MP from Barpeta Abdul Khaleque said it “violates delimitation guidelines for political reasons”.

Taking to Twitter Wednesday, Khaleque remarked: “Officially, it’s (a) draft of the Election Commission of India, but practically it’s of Himanta Biswa Sarma.”

Delimitation draft of Assam constituencies is total unscientific . It violates delimitation guidelines for political reasons. Officially it’s draft of Election Commission of India, but practically it’s of @himantabiswa . Administrative units has been broken unnecessary .

— Abdul Khaleque (@MPAbdulKhaleque) June 21, 2023

In his tweet, he said that administrative units had been “unnecessarily” broken. He elaborated further on this at a press meet in Guwahati.

“They have demolished administrative units, which is against the primary condition of the delimitation exercise,” he said.

“In Lok Sabha constituencies, for example, they have dissolved an administrative unit of Goalpara district by shifting it to Guwahati. Similarly, in Bongaigaon district, two constituencies have been moved under Barpeta district and another to Dhubri. Two other constituencies in Barpeta district have been moved to Dhubri. Distant places have been linked to far more distant areas,” Khaleque added..

“For legislative assemblies, it is a horrible proposition. Not just blocks, they have broken a large number of gram panchayats too, just to ensure the interest of the BJP,” he further alleged.

MP Gaurav Gogoi also expressed concern over “the haste the EC has shown in publishing the delimitation draft”, especially in the backdrop of the ethnic conflict in BJP-ruled Manipur, where more than 100 people have died and entire communities have been displaced.

“In the wake of what has happened in Manipur, I hope the BJP will not do anything that will undermine the sensitive law and order situation in Assam, because often a polarised environment helps them” Gogoi said.

“This is nothing beyond an attempt to save the fortunes of the BJP in Assam. This draft has not been made on the basis of administrative efficiency or the concerns of local people, but essentially by comparing the election results of last two Lok Sabha elections and assembly elections,” he alleged.

According to him, the “hastily prepared draft” could impact relations between various ethnic, religious, and linguistic communities.

“It has the potential to create division between Assamese Hindus vs Bengali Hindus, tribals vs Bengalis, Bodos vs non-Bodos, Scheduled Caste vs Religious minorities, Scheduled Caste vs General Community,” he added.

Meanwhile, rejecting the draft delimitation proposal, Assam Trinamool Congress chief Ripun Bora said in a press statement that “without completion of the National Register of Citizens (NRC), the draft delimitation in Assam on the basis of 2001 cannot be accepted”.

He alleged that the BJP is eyeing electoral gains through voter division, for which the delimitation proposal was put out in haste.

However, CEC Kumar in his visit to Assam had clarified that the processes for delimitation and NRC are “two different aspects” and there was no “legal bar” on carrying them out separately or simultaneously.

EC to visit Assam for public hearing

Suggestions and objections to the draft proposal are open for submission until July 11, after which the Election Commission will conduct a public hearing in Assam. In a March visit to the state, the CEC and other EC officials had gathered inputs from stakeholders.

Opposition parties had then raised concerns about the use of 2001 Census data instead of the more recent 2011 Census records, the authority of the EC in conducting the delimitation instead of the Delimitation Commission, and the timing of the exercise shortly before the 2024 parliamentary elections, given that the delimitation of constituencies for the entire country is scheduled for 2026.

In its statement this week, the EC noted that it had received and considered “representations from 11 political parties and 71 other organisations”.

Among the suggestions from political parties and organisations listed in the EC press statement was the need for the Commission to “seriously look into the population pattern in Lower Assam”.

“Considering the demographic change in Upper Assam, seats in Upper Assam should not be decreased as those who are following the National Birth Policy should not suffer,” reads one of the suggestions that the EC team took into account.